Monday, July 27, 2015

Climate Change

I’m back on my hobby horse once again. By ignoring fluctuations in climate prior to 1860, the IPCC is freed from the need to look at the cyclical pattern of alternating warm and cool periods since the 11th century. From the start of that century through to the late 13th, European temperatures were 1˚C above those of the late 20th century. During this period, known as the the Medieval Warm Period, vineyards were established throughout England and in the cooler parts of Europe, and sea ice was largely absent around Iceland and southern Greenland. Viking settlers grew cereals in both regions, and in Greenland they buried their dead deep in soils that became permanently frozen until the late 20th century when, to the hysteria of the global warming acolytes, the permafrost has retreated sufficiently for the soils (and burial grounds) to reappear. These are facts that do not require scientific modelling: they are what they are.

From this time through to the present, the 11-year cycle of decreased solar activity of the sun has been observed and has been the subject of numerous scientific papers. The problem has been, and presently is, that over periods of time the resumption of activity has not occurred, with periods of significant cooling. The first was between 1270 and 1340, and is known as the Wolf Minimum. Temperatures then rose rapidly to a level close to previous highs before the Spörer Minimum between 1410 and 1480. By 1600 temperatures had risen again, and stayed high until the Maunder Minimum between 1670 and 1710. This gave rise to the Little Ice Age when the Thames River remained frozen throughout the year, widespread famine occurred in Europe, Chateau Latour made no wine between 1693 and 1702, and in 1709 the temperature in Marseille dropped to 17.5˚C below zero.

There is only one explanation for these rises and falls, and it’s not anthropogenic. It has been explicitly accepted by the chairman of the IPCC that there has been no global warming since 1997, and for its part the British MET Offices have reported that their will be no warming prior to 2017, extending the pause to 21 years.

Once again, there is little doubt about the proposition that warming ceases and cooling begins when solar activity and irradiance (sunspots) decrease significantly.

Enter the first Russian commentator, Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, one of the world’s leading solar physicists, and head of space research at the Russian Academy of Sciences. He believes the world is well on the way to another deep freeze that will hit a low around 2040, and last the rest of the century. He has also shown that Mars has global warming and cooling patterns following precisely those of Earth. Now, mathematics professor, Valentina Zharkova, from the Northumbria University in the UK, has presented a model that can forecast the duration and intensity of solar cycles, and claims she can predict their influence with an accuracy of 97%.

She has extrapolated a geophysical theory that explains how the motion of the earth’s outer core moves conducting material, such as liquid iron, across a weak magnetic field to create an electric current. This also interacts with the fluid motion below the surface of Earth to create two magnetic fields along the axis of its rotation.

Zharkova applied the same theory to the sun and delivered a paper to the National Astronomy meeting where she said ‘We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the sun’s interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Combing both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent.’

Looking at these magnetic wave patterns, the model predicts that there will be few sunspots over the next two 11-year cycles – called Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022, and Cycle 26, which runs from 2030 to 2040.

She continued ‘In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the property of a “Maunder Minimum”.’

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Dinner at Estelle by Scott Pickett

I was lucky enough to crack an invitation for one of the dinners celebrating the establishment of Estelle by Scott Pickett. The dishes were:

Cod Roe & Potato Soufflé
Jerusalem Artichoke & Saltbush
Parmesan & Lemon Myrtle

Spanner Crab, Cauliflower & Vadouvan
Kingfish, Ink & Burnt Carrot
Black Truffle Risoni
White Rocks Veal, Mustard Leaf & Hand Rolled Macaroni
Violet, Milk & Chocolate

Lemon Aspen Doughnut
Raspberry Vinegar Ganache

All were right up to the standard expected of Scott Pickett, two of truly exceptional quality: the Black Truffle Risoni and the White Rocks Veal, Mustard Leaf and and Hand Rolled Macaroni.

The restaurant has an innovative configuration, with seating for around 40 people at smallish tables, and another 18 people seated on a bar running along two sides of the open kitchen.  I didn’t sit at one of the tall chairs, so can only take that on trust, but the seats that the normal tables as good as they come from a comfort point of view.