Wikipedia says that ‘moral panic’
occurs when an issue or situation becomes defined as a threat to social values
and interests. There is no doubt that climate change falls in the dead centre
of moral panic, whether you are a believer or a non-believer.
There is no better illustration than the August 2014 Australian Grapegrower
and Winemaker magazine. Blaring from its front cover are the words ‘Climate
crisis: special news feature.’ There are 13 pages on the subject in the
magazine, most of which trot out the conventional arguments of those screaming
from the rooftops about the immediate crisis.
By far the most interesting was a report on the Australian Wine Research
Institute’s Dr Mardi Longbottom, who currently manages research and extension
projects focused on greenhouse gases (CHG) and sustainability in the grape and
wine sector. She points out the global warming potential of nitrous oxide
is around 300 times that of carbon dioxide, and that its contribution to global
warming is significant even though its volume is small. The AWRI has been
working on a project investigating N2O emissions from vineyards, and
preliminary results of the experiments show the N2O emissions from Australian
vineyards are similar to those measured in Californian vineyards, and are very
low compared to other horticultural crops. Moreover, reducing N2O
emissions of anthropogenic origin (soils release low levels of N2O regardless of
any agricultural activity or soil enrichment) is relatively easy.
When you come to CO2, the plants, grasses and trees exist on earth only because
of the availability of their food source, CO2. Vineyards are very effective in
making use of CO2, particularly in a warming climate (let’s not get caught up
in the fact that the globe has not warmed since 1997), but there are undeniable
shifts in climate.
Dr John Gladstones points out that long-term commercial greenhouse practice
shows that yield can increase without any loss of quality if there are enhanced
CO2 levels linked to higher temperatures. Taking this knowledge to the
vineyard, autumn cropping, and winter pruning means a low carbon status in
spring, and a need for the vine to utilise CO2 to maximise root growth, canopy
growth and fruitfulness. Increasing levels of CO2 should allow vines to
carry higher yields, while remaining in carbon balance. There should also
be sufficient surplus assimilate to ripen the current crop, and promote continuing
root growth through the ripening phase. In addition, enhancing the vine’s
water use efficiency should improve its stress and growth balance in
environments previously too dry and stressful, and thus extend viticulture into
regions with lower rainfall at fruitset and subsequent ripening. The
question then is, how great an increase in CO2 will be relevant and beneficial?
Greenhouse horticultural crops grown in an environment between 700 and
900 ppm CO2 need temperatures 2˚C to 4˚C higher than normal atmosphere to fully
achieve enhancement yield and quality potential.
This leads to Dr Gladstones’ conclusion in his book Wine, Terroir and
Climate Change, at page 199:
‘I conclude that the widely held expectation of a viticultural flight to
existing cold areas is misplaced. Optimum locations for particular wine styles
will probably change little over the coming half century. Any minor shifts will
be into areas with higher actual or effective night temperatures, eg closer to
coasts, to warmer soils or to slopes with superior night air drainage. Favoured
sites in warm to hot climates will have higher afternoon relative humidities,
most desirably from afternoon sea or lake breezes.’
Looking at the broader picture, Bjorn Lomborg, adjunct professor at the
Copenhagen Business School, is one of those who does not dispute that in the
longer term, the earth is warming, but most certainly says there is no cause
for panic. He and others have made the following points:
·
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that
in 2010 the world derived 0.7% of its energy from wind and 0.1% by solar. In
2035 (with an optimistic green scenario) the IEA forecasts 2.4% wind and 1%
solar energy. On the other side of the coin, and with identical time
parameters, fossil fuel energy will only fall from 81% to 79%.
· Globally, cold is a far greater contributor to
deaths than heat. By mid-century researchers estimate there will be 400,000
more heat deaths, but 1.8 million fewer cold deaths. (Based on median IPCC
forecasts of global warming.)
· Since 1900 warming has resulted in a net
economic benefit of 1.5% of GDP per annum. The benefit will peak about 2025,
and it won’t be until towards the end of the century that net gain will turn
into net loss (accepting the IPCC projections on warming through the century).
· The EU 20-20-20 policy, which aims to cut
greenhouse gas emissions to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, and ensure 20%
renewable energy supply, costs about $250 billion a year. By the end of this
century, its cumulative cost will be $20 trillion, yet on a standard climate
model it will have reduced global temperature by a mere 0.05˚C.
· If nothing is done to control warming, the cost
over the next 200 years is estimated to be $33 trillion, but GDP will run to $2200
trillion. Thus warming will cost 1.5% of GDP.
· The percentage of emissions from all developed
nations has, in fact, continued to fall since 1990, but those from Asia, and
from Africa, Latin America and the Middle East have risen dramatically. It is
expected these will peak about 2050 before falling somewhat by 2100, when they
will account for around 60% of total emissions.
· Kyoto set a target of 36.6% rise in global
emissions from 1990 to 2010. In fact they have increased by 45.4%. With no
Kyoto, the increase would have been 45.9%. Thus 20 years of discussions have
had next to no impact, and the cost of implementing more stringent controls
will far exceed the economic benefit of present green/renewable technologies.
What, then, to make of all this? West Australia, led by Margaret
River, has had a succession of outstanding vintages from 2007 through to 2014.
For most in South Australia, 2012 was one of the greatest red years for
many decades; indeed, Grant Burge poses the question: Best ever? 2010 was
another truly great vintage, ‘09 very good. The missing vintage?
Well, it certainly wasn’t affected by heat, just lots and lots of rain.
Southern and central Victoria followed in the same pattern, adding 2013
to the marvellous 2012 vintage. And 2011 was absolutely outstanding for
chardonnay. What about the Hunter Valley? It had a marvellous 2011
as the rain clouds parted and swept around it as they came down from the north;
2012 was typical with vintage rain (nothing new there) but 2013 was primed to
be called the vintage of the decade until 2014 came along, said by those with
long memories (or good cellars) to be the best red wine vintage since 1965.
Crisis? I don’t think so.
