Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Climate Change – True or False?

• When will Adam Bandt and his acolytes in the ABC get to read the Approved Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) of the IPCC’s Fifth Report issued last month? (I assume none will read the full report, for it is far too long for the ADHD nature of their sound and print bytes.)  
• The SPM says (and I quote) ‘The rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998 to 2012) is 0.05˚C [-0.05 to +0.15˚C] per decade.’ • If that rate of warming were to continue through to the end of this century, the global temperature would increase by less than 0.5˚C. 

• The SPM says the miniscule pause in warming for 1998 to 2012 (not contemplated by earlier IPCC reports) is due to natural variability, and does not in fact allow extrapolation through to the end of the century. If so, natural variability will surely occur again.

• Even if one accepts the IPCC caveat, the figures through to the end 2012 cannot possibly support the assertion that the appalling bushfires in NSW (the worst since 1939) are a consequence of climate change/global warming (the terms seem to be bandied around as if they are interchangeable). 

• To then take the giant leap and suggest that the Abbott-led coalition has any responsibility for the fires is utterly ludicrous. 

• If Australia was to turn off every heating or cooling appliance, turn off the lights, destroy all motor vehicles, walk or cycle to work in rabbit skins, etc, it would do nothing to stop climate change/global warming. Australia produces 1.5% of atmospheric CO2; if we were to shut up shop, global emissions would fall from 400 ppm to 398 ppm. 

• Even if we were, as of today, to stop all mining, stop all exports of iron and coal, and descend to third world status, it would still not have any lasting impact, other than to decimate the population. 

• Using IPCC projections through to 2050, global warming would increase global net GDP.

• Far more deaths occur due to cold than to heat.

1 comment:

Howard Jones said...

Sorry James, you are missing the point and a focus on Adam Bandt and the ABC does you no justice. You are cherry picking words from the IPCC report. Shooting the messenger this is called.
The connection between recent bush fires and climate change was actually saying that we can expect more frequent and more extreme events of this type. This is the message that was being made. That is the connection with Government policies which continue to deny anthropogenic climate changes.
Your comment about more people dying of cold than heat is rather simplistic and irrelevant.
Tony Abbott said in October 2013: "New South Wales bush fires are part of living in Australia, not affected by Climate change. We’ve had fires inn the 1850s, 1939, 1968, 1983, 1994, 2003, 2009 and noes, 2013.”
This ignores the fact that none of the previous fires was in October, the number of years between the fires has been: 80, 29, 14, 11, 9, 6 and 4.
i.e more frequent and extreme.
Sorry James, I make use of your wine expertise (and pay for it) but I will go elsewhere for my information on Climate Change.
Howard Jones

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